Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.122392 0.143696 0.168434 0.199482 0.237691 0.283537 0.343257
2025-09-14 0.093746 0.119239 0.151902 0.197511 0.260669 0.346741 0.475938
2025-09-21 0.072296 0.098177 0.134164 0.189240 0.273963 0.403888 0.627704
2025-09-28 0.052496 0.074975 0.108297 0.163193 0.255324 0.411655 0.716312
2025-10-05 0.043879 0.066046 0.101194 0.163904 0.279864 0.500969 1.000897
2025-10-12 0.038026 0.060154 0.097585 0.169822 0.317234 0.635106 1.482788
2025-10-19 0.032900 0.054407 0.092978 0.173035 0.352528 0.789846 2.176312
2025-10-26 0.028811 0.049635 0.089075 0.176828 0.392648 0.988341 3.265919
2025-11-02 0.024704 0.044026 0.082332 0.172780 0.414061 1.160231 4.579537
2025-11-09 0.020962 0.038420 0.074382 0.163702 0.419485 1.295950 6.070133
2025-11-16 0.018642 0.035222 0.070831 0.164391 0.454812 1.577701 9.171804
2025-11-23 0.016663 0.032371 0.067432 0.164555 0.490383 1.911853 14.037536
2025-11-30 0.015010 0.030022 0.064918 0.167233 0.541147 2.414667 23.745066
2025-12-07 0.013584 0.027922 0.062560 0.169833 0.596530 3.063581 42.056809
2025-12-14 0.012092 0.025413 0.058627 0.166290 0.626643 3.649816 69.580444
2025-12-21 0.010176 0.021606 0.050527 0.146312 0.570289 3.534885 80.221203
2025-12-28 0.009368 0.020351 0.049070 0.148915 0.627502 4.512414 161.103461
2026-01-04 0.008795 0.019579 0.048793 0.155902 0.717350 6.152595 408.293103
2026-01-11 0.008201 0.018652 0.047870 0.160254 0.800292 8.160005 1115.966860
2026-01-18 0.007676 0.017823 0.047062 0.164945 0.894700 10.967361 3865.220202
2026-01-25 0.007036 0.016585 0.044722 0.162213 0.937308 13.321583 12205.822492
2026-02-01 0.006366 0.015172 0.041547 0.154563 0.936612 14.943400 34712.160519
2026-02-08 0.005952 0.014412 0.040358 0.155840 1.014090 19.384162 337288.598685